Skip to main content

MARGIN OF ERROR CALCULATOR

Margin of error calculator for surveys and samples.

Find how precise a survey result is from the sample size and confidence level, for a percentage or a mean, with an optional finite population correction when you sample a large share of a known population.

INPUTS

Your sample

z × SE

Use 50% if you do not know the expected percentage: it gives the largest, safest margin of error.

METHOD

Margin of error formula, worked example, and how to report it

What is the margin of error?

The margin of error is how far a survey result could be from the true population value at a chosen confidence level. If 60% of respondents agree with a ±5% margin at 95% confidence, the true figure is probably between 55% and 65%. Larger samples give smaller margins of error.

Formula

MOE = z × √(p(1 − p) ÷ n) × √((N − n) ÷ (N − 1))

z is 1.645 for 90%, 1.960 for 95% and 2.576 for 99% confidence. The last part is the finite population correction; leave it out when the population is large or unknown. For a mean, replace √(p(1 − p) ÷ n) with SD ÷ √n.

Worked example: survey of 385 people

n = 385, 95% confidence, p = 0.5 (unknown proportion).

  1. Multiply p by (1 − p): 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.25.
  2. Divide by n: 0.25 ÷ 385 = 0.000649.
  3. Take the square root: standard error = 0.0255.
  4. Multiply by z = 1.96: margin of error = 0.0499.
  5. Report: ±5.0 percentage points at 95% confidence.

How sample size changes the margin of error

  • n = 100: ±9.8%
  • n = 200: ±6.9%
  • n = 385: ±5.0%
  • n = 1,000: ±3.1%
  • (95% confidence, p = 0.5, large population)

How to write it in your methodology

“With 385 respondents, the survey has a margin of error of ±5.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, assuming maximum variability (p = 0.5).”

References

  • Cochran, W. G. (1977). Sampling techniques (3rd ed.). Wiley.
  • Lohr, S. L. (2021). Sampling: Design and analysis (3rd ed.). CRC Press.